Future Teaching Job Market Prediction

Hello! I am Tom Mitchell, Founder and Education Job Coach for Teacher Express.

As you know, the job market right now in education is tight. There are many more applicants than teaching vacancies. It is a perfect example for use in Economics lessons (the supply is greater than the demand).

However this is not an academic matter, and for applicants who have recently earned (or soon expect to earn) teaching credentials, it is discouraging. Graduates search high and low for job openings only to learn (they hard way) that the HR office has been flooded with applications! Competition has never been greater. But then, you already know that.

I am pleased to suggest some better news, however. I believe - and this is my personal and professional opinion - the worst of the current economic "crunch" is behind us. In Pennsylvania the past few years, funding has been reduced for many districts, creating budget shortfalls that local school boards had to plan for. In many districts, the number of teaching positions were decreased to reduce expenditures, largely by not replacing retiring teachers, but also by elimination of non-essential programs and staff furloughs.

This past year seemed to offer a bit of hope. Most districts received level funding and the size of their work force remained fairly constant. Districts actually have been posting many position vacancies in order to replace teachers who will be leaving the classroom, due to retirements or other leaves of absence. It appears that most districts believe they have already eliminated as many positions as they can and seem reluctant to cut any more.

I want to share an additional thought with you, however, that may be even better news. If school districts will continue to replace as many retiring teachers as they can, this becomes a glimmer of hope for applicants. I am quite optimistic because I predict that teacher retirements over the next several years will increase due to three factors: uncertain futures regarding the cost of health care, uncertain futures regarding pensions, and the expiration of existing teacher contracts.

People generally prefer what is "known" over what is "unknown," and the uncertainty of the first two factors names above are of much importance to older teachers. Therefore, I predict that more teachers who are in the "retirement red zone" (those who can retire or retire early) will retire than ever before. Although in the past teachers often remained in the job until the maximum retirement benefit was reached, my prediction is that most teachers who can retire, in present times, will retire, especially in years when their teacher contract will expire. The risk of any "changes" to language in a new contract will cause many teachers to retire under the current "known" conditions rather than face that uncertainty in the future.

My prediction is favorable for younger teacher applicants! I suggest that they get ready and do their homework. This would be a good time to plan to "Pre-Apply" in selected districts so their applications receive as much attention as they deserve.

For more details or to plan a strategy that works for you, please call the Coach and be sure to purchase your copy of Pathway to Teaching.

                 

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